We investigate the prediction of excess returns and fundamentals by financial ratios – dividend-price ratio, earnings-price ratio, and book-to-market ratio – by decomposing financial ratios into a cyclical component and a stochastic trend component. We find both components predict excess...

Variance after-effect is a perceptual bias in the dynamic assessment of variance. Experimental evidence shows that perceived variance is decreased after prolonged exposure to high variance and increased after exposure to low variance. We introduce this effect in an otherwise standard financial...

This paper investigates the validity and usefulness of “hybrid” valuation models. We recast the model in Ohlson and Johannesson (2016) as a hybrid of the Dividend Discount Model and an earnings-based price multiple model, and develop a new hybrid model that generalizes the Residual Income...

This paper presents results from an experiment and follow-up survey examining whether stock prices influence analysts' earnings forecasts. In our experiment, prices influence analysts' forecasts when uncertainty about future earnings is high, but not when uncertainty is low. Additional analyses...

This paper examines the time-series predictability of aggregate stock returns in 20 emerging markets. In contrast to the aggregate-level findings in US, earnings yield forecasts the time-series of aggregate stock returns in emerging markets. We consider aggregate earnings not as normalizing...

The purpose of this paper is to analyse the predictability of earnings information before the quarterly disclosure date. Two categories of firms are contrasted: the firms that announce better quarterly earnings than the prior period and the firms that do not. The paper uses a sample of 67...

I hypothesize that the stock market overreacts to management earnings forecasts because of the uncertainty surrounding them. I find that negative management forecast surprises lead to a –5.9% abnormal return around the forecast and a 1.9% correction in the 2-month period after earnings are...

This study examines whether and why the stock market assigns an incremental premium to the act of beating analyst earnings forecasts when the economy is unforecastable. Our study uses a novel measure of macroeconomic (macro) uncertainty from Jurado et al. (2015) that captures periods during...

We develop a measure of how information events impact investors' perceptions of risk that is broadly applicable and simple to implement. We derive this measure from an option-pricing model where investors anticipate an announcement that simultaneously conveys information on the announcer's...