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Following recent advances in the non-parametric realized volatility approach, we separately measure the discontinuous … volatility models. We analyze the distributional properties of the jump measures vis-à-vis the corresponding realized volatility … accuracy of high-frequency volatility models …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013004411
Volatility has been one of the most active and successful areas of research in time series econometrics and economic … empirical insights to emerge from this burgeoning literature, with a distinct focus on forecasting applications. Volatility is … inherently latent, and Section 1 begins with a brief intuitive account of various key volatility concepts. Section 2 then …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014023691
A rapidly growing literature has documented important improvements in volatility measurement and forecasting … provides a practical framework for non-parametrically measuring the jump component in realized volatility measurements … an easy-to-implement reduced form model for realized volatility results in highly significant jump coefficient estimates …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009764770
This study reconsiders the role of jumps for volatility forecasting by showing that jumps have a positive and mostly … significant impact on future volatility. This result becomes apparent once volatility is separated into its continuous and … yields) shows that the proposed techniques improve significantly the accuracy of volatility forecasts especially in periods …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008729093
liquid instrument suffers from liquidity shocks that induce periods of increased volatility and significant return …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011523414
This paper characterizes the dynamics of jumps and analyzes their importance for volatility forecasting. Using high … importance of jumps for volatility forecasting. To this end, we estimate and analyze the predictive ability of several …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012904046
leverage effect and the volatility feedback effect. We stress the importance of distinguishing between realized volatility and … implied volatility, and find that implied volatilities are essential for assessing the volatility feedback effect. The … leverage hypothesis asserts that return shocks lead to changes in conditional volatility, while the volatility feedback effect …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013128856
The first purpose of this paper is to assess the short-run forecasting capabilities of two competing financial duration models. The forecast performance of the Autoregressive Conditional Multinomial–Autoregressive Conditional Duration (ACM-ACD) model is better than the Asymmetric...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013137525
evaluate the leading role of the daily volatility of two major financial variables, namely commodity and stock prices, in their …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013065095
We survey the nascent literature on machine learning in the study of financial markets. We highlight the best examples of what this line of research has to offer and recommend promising directions for future research. This survey is designed for both financial economists interested in grasping...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014349681