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To capture the volatility in the global food commodity prices, we employed two competing models, the thin tailed the … simplicity may lead to unreliable results of the conditional volatility estimates. The paper also shows that the volatility of … food commodity prices characterized with the intermediate and short memory behavior, implying that the volatility of food …
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Price forecasting systems are of considerable importance to food security management by governments' and non-governmental organizations. Sparse data availability in low-income economies, however, generally necessitates reliance on reduced form forecasting methods. Relatively recent innovations...
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Following the 2007/09 and subsequent world food price shocks, a growing number of simulation studies predicted their implications on food security. Studies that only require pre-price-hike data and the specification of relevant price or income changes have been advocated as a potential tool to...
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