Showing 1 - 10 of 18,116
We derive a model-free option-based formula to estimate the contribution of market frictions to expected returns (CFER) within an asset pricing setting. We estimate CFER for the U.S. optionable stocks. We document that CFER is sizable, it predicts stock returns and it subsumes the effect of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011932555
Based on the theory of static replication of variance swaps we assess the sign and magnitude of variance risk premiums … general shape of the implied volatility function of the corresponding currency pair. Overall, we conclude that there is a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010410031
predictive capability of currency volatility risk premia for currency returns. The volatility risk premium -- the difference … between expected realized volatility and model-free implied volatility -- reflects the costs of insuring against currency … volatility fluctuations, and the strategy sells high-insurance-cost currencies and buys low-insurance-cost currencies. The …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013035847
We use learning in an equilibrium model to explain the puzzling predictive power of the volatility risk premium (VRP …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012892623
The option implied volatility spread and skew predict stock returns. These variables also reflect the expected cost of … stock returns; however, the volatility spread and skew do not once this implied fee is considered. Results are similar for a … yet in stock prices. These findings indicate that the volatility spread and skew predict returns because they proxy for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012855076
This paper studies the intertemporal relation between U.S. volatility risk and international equity risk premia. We … show that a common volatility risk factor constructed from the option-implied U.S. forward variances positively and … robust to the inclusion of existing domestic and U.S. predictors and alternative U.S. volatility risk proxies. The …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014236052
We document that a theoretically founded, real-time, and easy-to-implement option-based measure, termed synthetic-stock difference (SSD), accurately estimates the part of stock's expected return arising from stock's transaction costs. We calculate SSD for U.S. optionable stocks. SSD can be more...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014231634
We study whether prices of traded options contain information about future extreme market events. Our option-implied conditional expectation of market loss due to tail events, or tail loss measure, predicts future market returns, magnitude, and probability of the market crashes, beyond and above...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010226098
This paper reviews the predictability evidence of the variance risk premium: (1) it predicts significant positive risk premiums across equity, bond, currency, and credit markets; (2) the predictability peaks at a few month horizons and dies out afterwards; (3) such a short-run predictability is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012940510
I generalize the long-run risks (LRR) model of Bansal and Yaron (2004) by incorporating recursive smooth ambiguity aversion preferences from Klibanoff et al. (2005, 2009) and time-varying ambiguity. Relative to the Bansal-Yaron model, the generalized LRR model is as tractable but more flexible...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012617667