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This paper provides an empirical study on the predictability of implied volatility using dataset collected from the … implied volatility characteristics across various maturities. We applied both in and out-of-sample tests that include the … provides evidence of non-random movement in the implied volatility series and indicates predictability of implied volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013121151
This study examines the adaptive market hypothesis of the S&P500, FTSE100, NIKKEI225 and EURO STOXX 50 by testing for stock return predictability using daily data from January 1990 to May 2014. We apply three bootstrapped versions of the variance ratio test to the raw stock returns and also...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013018018
On several occasions technical analysis rules have been shown to have predictive power. The main purpose of this work is to decompose the predictive power of the moving average trading rule and isolate the portion that could be attributed to the possible exploitation of linear and non linear...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013403947
We introduce a long memory autoregressive conditional Poisson (LMACP) model to model highly persistent time series of counts. The model is applied to forecast quoted bid-ask spreads, a key parameter in stock trading operations. It is shown that the LMACP nicely captures salient features of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009229669
This is the first large study to examine the relation between analysts' stock recommendations, earnings forecasts, and future excess stock returns in an international context. We first document that some of the peculiar findings established in the U.S. extend to other countries where individual...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013148574
We study the effect of a mandatory improvement in public disclosure due to the adoption of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) on the stock return predictability of shorting activity. To assess the impact of the disclosure shock, we measure monthly changes in the demand for and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013224726
Recent general equilibrium models prescribe predictable dynamics in the volatility surfaces that are implied by … volatilities from over-the-counter options on eight different currencies, quoted against the Euro. We examine implied volatility … volatility trading strategies in the absence of transaction costs. Comparing across competing models, our results suggest that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013066121
flows, and examines its incremental role in explaining stock return volatility. We suggest that “other information” contains … timely basis than dividends or earnings. The link between “other information” and volatility can be derived from a … Ohlson's (1995) linear information dynamics. Using standardized regressions we find volatility increases when current “other …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013075116
average, exponentially something, AR, and GARCH class models including ARCH, GARCH, GJR- GARCH, and EGARCH. Volatility is … exchanges (TSE), where the market is highly regulated and therefore less subject to volatility. To evaluate the forecasting … with other volatility forecasting models in international exchanges. However, the simple smoothing model provides superior …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013138023
time-varying parameter vector autoregression with stochastic volatility. The empirical analysis reveals several new …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012594935