You're probably familiar, at least in passing, with the 'convexity' of long-term bonds - i.e. that yields dropping 1% produce a bigger price move than yields rising 1%. A significant amount of brainpower has gone into understanding all the ramifications of this convexity in the fixed income...

The dismal performance of professional economic forecasters to foresee the financial crisis has raised serious questions as to the credibility of modern economics. Several efforts have been made to account for this failure. The paper offers a tentative answer based on the lessons that may be...

For much of the last four decades, leading analysts have used large Keynesian macroeconomic models to prepare macroeconomic forecasts. More recently, VAR models have become a popular alternative. Despite their usefulness in preparing unconditional forecasts, VAR models are unsuitable for policy...