Max Pain price is the strike price at which the total payoff of all options (calls and puts) written on a particular stock, and with the same expiration date, is the lowest. We construct a measure of (potential) Max Pain gain/loss, sort stock prices according to this measure, and find that a...

There is limited evidence of intraday predictability both in the cross-section of US stock returns (see Heston et al., 2010) and in the time-series of the aggregate stock market (see Gao et al., 2015). I find that statistical time-series predictability does not imply economic profitability,...

The paper re-examines whether investors can predict oil and gas stock prices for abnormal returns using autocorrelation-based trading and filter rules and moving average based strategies. Short and long lengths moving averages were employed and their performances measured against the returns...

Using a laboratory experiment, we investigate whether contagion can emerge between two risky assets, even when their fundamentals are not correlated. To guide our experimental design, we use the ‘Two trees' asset pricing model developed by Cochrane et al. (2007). The model makes time-series...

Using a laboratory experiment, we investigate whether comovement can emerge between two risky assets, despite their fundamentals not being correlated. The ‘Two trees' asset pricing model developed by Cochrane et al. (2007) guides our experimental design and its predictions serve as our source...

This paper finds significant predictability in stock returns across technology-linked firms. Using patent-holding information to identify firms' technological linkage, we show that a long–short equity trading strategy sorted on lagged returns of technology-linked firms yields monthly alphas of...

A flexible statistical approach for the analysis of time-varying dynamics of transaction data on financial markets is here applied to intra-day trading strategies. A local adaptive technique is used to successfully predict financial time series, i.e., the buyer and the seller-initiated trading...

We identify all return leader-follower pairs among individual stocks using Granger causality regressions. Thus-identified leaders can reliably predict their followers' returns out of sample, and the return predictability works at the level of individual stocks rather than industries. Our results...

This paper develops an extension of Cochrane's (2008) joint hypothesis framework by allowing the coefficients to depend on the state of the economy. For recessions the results are clear-cut. Dividend yields vary entirely due to return predictability. However, in expansions, the "dog that did not...

Theory suggests a relationship between both volatility of volatility, variance risk premium, and the equity risk premium. We empirically investigate the relationship between volatility of volatility and the equity risk premium, and the relationship between the variance risk premium and the...