You're probably familiar, at least in passing, with the 'convexity' of long-term bonds - i.e. that yields dropping 1% produce a bigger price move than yields rising 1%. A significant amount of brainpower has gone into understanding all the ramifications of this convexity in the fixed income...

Evaluation methodologies for rare events from meteorology, psychology and medical diagnosis are used to examine the value of probability forecasts of real GDP declines during the current (Q0) and each of the next four quarters (Q1-Q4) using data from the Survey of Professional Forecasters. We...

The dismal performance of professional economic forecasters to foresee the financial crisis has raised serious questions as to the credibility of modern economics. Several efforts have been made to account for this failure. The paper offers a tentative answer based on the lessons that may be...