There is a debate in the literature on the best method to forecast an aggregate: (1) forecast the aggregate directly, (2) forecast the disaggregates and then aggregate, or (3) forecast the aggregate using disaggregate information. This paper contributes to this debate by suggesting that in the...

This paper compares the performance of different forecasting models of California house prices. Multivariate, theory-driven models are able to outperform atheoretical time series models across a battery of forecast comparison measures. Error correction models were best able to predict the...