We analyze the determinants of individual bank failures arising from solvency and liquidity shortages in a stylized banking system following Krause and Giansante (2012) where banks are characterized by the amount of capital, cash reserves and their exposure to the interbank loan market as...

Real oil prices surged from 2009 through 2014, comparable to the 1970's oil shock period. Standard explanations based on monopoly markup fall short since inflation remained low after 2009. This paper contributes strong evidence of Granger (1969) predictability of nominal factors to oil prices,...

This paper applies a Qual VAR approach to generate a continuous banking crisis indicator from an underlying latent variable using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm. Four decades of banking crises are assessed by accounting for the evolutionary nature of precursors, as measured through...

By employing the bootstrap full-sample Granger causality test and sub-sample rolling window causality test, this paper attempts to disentangle the causal nexus between financial instability and monetary policy uncertainty in the US, Japan, and Greece. The bootstrap full sample causality test...

This paper develops a structural macroeconometric model of the world economy, disaggregated into thirty five national economies. This panel unobserved components model features a monetary transmission mechanism, a fiscal transmission mechanism, and extensive macrofinancial linkages, both within...

EnglishThis article aims to analyze the models for prediction of bank distress and problems focusing to those based on the signal approach. Based on this study is an attempt to construct a mechanism to improve the signal-based models to predict the banking problems.BulgarianНастоящата...

In several recent studies unit root methods have been used in detection of financial bubbles in asset prices. The basic idea is that fundamental changes in the autocorrelation structure of relevant time series imply the presence of a rational price bubble. We provide cross-country evidence for...

In several recent studies unit root methods have been used in detection of financial bubbles in asset prices. The basic idea is that fundamental changes in the autocorrelation structure of relevant time series imply the presence of a rational price bubble. We provide cross-country evidence for...

Unit root methods have long been used in detection of financial bubbles in asset prices. The basic idea is that fundamental changes in the autocorrelation structure of relevant time series imply the presence of a rational price bubble. We provide cross-country evidence for performance of...