inflation. In two large-scale experiments, one conducted in the US and one in Germany, we show how the specifics of the response … survey design and for central banks' optimal adjustment of the response scales during times of high inflation. …

In density forecasts, respondents are asked to assign probabilities to pre-specifted ranges of inflation. We show in … implications for survey design and how central banks can adjust the response scales during times of high inflation. …

In density forecasts, respondents are asked to assign probabilities to pre-specified ranges of inflation. We show in … implications for survey design and how central banks can adjust the response scales during times of high inflation …

This paper presents a brief analysis of representative measures of inflation expectations from Central Bank of Brazil … measures of inflation expectations from the panel of professional forecasts surveyed from January 2002 to September 2012. We … predictive power of the alternative measures with the realized core of consumer price inflation. …

We examine whether inflation expectations obtained by open- and closed-ended questions lead to different inflation … expectations through a randomized controlled trial. We find that different questionnaires measure significantly different inflation … expectations, especially in the short term. We further investigate whether inflation expectations induce consumers to change the …

This paper analyses the distribution of long-term inflation expectations in the euro area using individual density …

Central bank surveys frequently elicit households' probabilistic beliefs about future inflation. The responses provide … only a coarse picture of inflation beliefs further away from zero. Using data from the Bundesbank household panel, we show … that the current high-inflation environment induces respondents to allocate considerable probability to the rightmost open …

The purpose of the present paper is to investigate perceived inflation gap persistence using actual data of … professional forecasts. We derive the unobserved perceived inflation gap persistence and using a state dependent model we estimate … the non-linear persistence coefficient of inflation gap. Our main result is that for GDP deflator inflation, the estimates …

We provide a new perspective on disagreement in inflation expectations by examining the full probability distributions … of UK consumer inflation forecasts based on an adaptive bootstrap multimodality test. Furthermore, we compare the … inflation forecasts of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) with those of UK consumers, for which we use data …

We propose to regard the central banker as a risk manager who aims to contain inflation within pre-specified bounds. We …