In the feld of empirical asset pricing, the challenges of high dimensionality, non-linear relationships, and interaction efects have led to the increasing popularity of machine learning (ML) methods. This study investigates the performance of ML methods when predicting diferent measures of stock...

In the third chapter (jointly with Igor Pozdeev), we document overnight index swaps (OIS) to be unbiased predictors of future short rates in developed economies, bearing no significant risk premium for maturities up to one year. We show that the OIS underlying overnight rates accurately reflect...

The theory suggests that investment activities and monetary policy influence the development of the global business cycle. The oil price and other raw material prices also play a key role in the economic development and there is a comovement among oil consumption and global output. Therefore,...

We propose two novel methods to "bring ABMs to the data". First, we put forward a new Bayesian procedure to estimate the numerical values of ABM parameters that takes into account the time structure of simulated and observed time series. Second, we propose a method to forecast aggregate time...