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realistic dynamics of riskneutral and realized volatilities. I provide evidence that the jump risk in volatility of long run … of the VIX or realized stock volatility. In contrast, a jump-in-volatility LRR model generates a smaller variance risk … premium but better fits the VIX and the realized stock volatility dynamics. Finally, jump-in-volatility models generate …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009734341
predict future returns, there is a significant relation between volatility spreads and expected stock returns. Portfolio level … the realized-implied volatility spread that can be viewed as a proxy for volatility risk. The results also provide … evidence for a significantly positive link between expected returns and the call-put options' implied volatility spread that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013116882
In this paper we examine the pricing of volatility risk using SPX corridor implied volatility. We decompose model …-free total implied volatility into various components using different segments of the cross section of out-of-the money put and … call option prices. We find that only model-free volatility computed from the cross section of out-of-the-money call option …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013087088
) The Volatility Puzzle. We offer resolutions of those objections within the rational finance. We do not claim that those …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012842392
I generalize the long-run risks (LRR) model of Bansal and Yaron (2004) by incorporating recursive smooth ambiguity aversion preferences from Klibanoff et al. (2005, 2009) and time-varying ambiguity. Relative to the Bansal-Yaron model, the generalized LRR model is as tractable but more flexible...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012617667
We build an equilibrium model to explain why stock return predictability concentrates in bad times. The key feature is that investors use different forecasting models, and hence assess uncertainty differently. As economic conditions deteriorate, uncertainty rises and investors' opinions...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011721618
allocation and risk management require estimates of the volatility of these factors. While realized volatility has become a … provide a statistical approach to estimate the volatility of these factors. The efficacy of this approach relative to the use … of models based on squared returns is demonstrated for forecasts of the market volatility and a portfolio allocation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011860248
We examine the pricing of tail risk in international stock markets. We find that the tail risk of different countries is highly integrated. Introducing a new World Fear index, we find that local and global aggregate market returns are mainly driven by global tail risk rather than local tail...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011751251
liquidity position. Finally, it investigates whether the idiosyncratic risk is priced in BRICS countries’ equity markets. The …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014307488
predictive variance. We show theoretically how this adjustment factor affects both average and volatility of excess returns. We … related to excess volatility as predicted by the model. Further confirming the model's implications, we also show how stock …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012487731