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consensus values. Strategic coordination can consequently explain poor performances of prediction markets as resulting from the … robustness of coordination in a forecasting setting implementing contradictory incentives for accurate forecasts and coordination …. Forecasts are shown to be inaccurate and biased toward current values. This in turn has subjects aiming at coordination benefits …
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We provide a tractable characterization of the sharp identification region of the parameters ø in a broad class of incomplete econometric models. Models in this class have set valued predictions that yield a convex set of conditional or unconditional moments for the observable model variables....
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Game harmony describes how harmonious (non-conflictual) or disharmonious (conflictual) the interests of players are in a game, as embodied in the game’s raw payoffs. It departs from the traditional game-theoretic approach in that it is a non-equilibrium behavioral approach which can be...
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We estimate a Bayesian learning model with heterogeneity aimed at explaining expert forecast disagreement and its evolution over horizons. Disagreement is postulated to have three components due to differences in: i) the initial prior beliefs, ii) the weights attached on priors, and iii)...
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We consider a decision maker who is unaware of objects to be sampled and thus cannot form beliefs about the occurrence of particular objects. Ex ante she can form beliefs about the occurrence of novelty and the frequencies of yet to be known objects. Conditional on any sampled objects, she can...
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