In this study, we separately estimate the implied volatility from bid prices and ask prices ofdeep out-of-the-money (OTM) put options on the S&P500 index. We find that the impliedvolatility of ask prices has stronger stock return predictability than that of bid prices. Our finding is robust to...

We examine whether option prices correct for predictable bias in stock prices associated with accounting anomalies. Evidence from put-call parity violations suggests that they do not. Rather, option prices accurately track contemporaneous stock prices. Further analysis suggests that high costs...

We study whether prices of traded options contain information about future extreme market events. Our option-implied conditional expectation of market loss due to tail events, or tail loss measure, predicts future market returns, magnitude, and probability of the market crashes, beyond and above...

We comprehensively analyze the predictive power of several option implied variables for monthly S & P 500 excess returns and realized variance. The correlation risk premium (CRP) emerges as a strong predictor of both excess returns and realized variance. This is true both in- and out-of-sample....

Using a novel equity lending dataset, this paper is the first to show that expected returns strongly and negatively predict future equity lending fees. In comparing two expected return measures, I find that a rational expected return has stronger predictive power of future short selling activity...

We derive a model-free option-based formula to estimate the contribution of market frictions to expected returns (CFER) within an asset pricing setting. We estimate CFER for the U.S. optionable stocks. We document that CFER is sizable, it predicts stock returns and it subsumes the effect of...

Using the next-day and next-week returns of stocks in the Korean market, we examine the association of option volume ratios - i.e. the option-to-stock (O/S) ratio, which is the total volume of put options and call options scaled by total underlying equity volume, and the put-call (P/C) ratio,...

We show that option prices predict future stock returns only when stock returns are ex-ante predictable using public signals from the stock market itself. Directional option trading cannot explain these results, suggesting that they are not driven by informed trading or superior ability of...

We examine whether the distribution of trades along the set of strike prices of option contracts on the same stock contains information about underlying price discovery. We show that option traders' demand for delta exposure drives the volume-weighted average strike-spot price ratio (VWKS). In...