We introduce the Qualitative Expectations Hypothesis (QEH) as a new approach to modeling macroeconomic and Financial outcomes. Building on John Muth's seminal insight underpinning the Rational Expectations Hypothesis (REH), QEH represents the market's forecasts to be consistent with the...

We introduce the Qualitative Expectations Hypothesis (QEH) as a new approach to modeling macroeconomic and Financial outcomes. Building on John Muth's seminal insight underpinning the Rational Expectations Hypothesis (REH), QEH represents the market's forecasts to be consistent with the...

We introduce the Qualitative Expectations Hypothesis (QEH) as a new approach to modeling macroeconomic and financial outcomes. Building on John Muth's seminal insight underpinning the Rational Expectations Hypothesis (REH), QEH represents the market's forecasts to be consistent with the...

In a rapidly changing environment, it becomes extremely important to anticipate future changes and developments. A key element of strategic action and policy-making is now to recognise the possibility of alternative futures, and to implement strategy that makes the best alternative possible. The...

We study the properties of generalized stochastic gradient (GSG) learning in forward-looking models. We examine how the conditions for stability of standard stochastic gradient (SG) learning both differ from and are related to E-stability, which governs stability under least squares learning. SG...

We study in detail the log-linear return approximation introduced by Campbell and Shiller (1988a). First, we derive an upper bound for the mean approximation error, given stationarity of the log dividend-price ratio. Next, we simulate various rational bubbles which have explosive conditional...

Comparison of macroeconomic simulation models, particularly agent-based models (ABMs), with more traditional approaches such as VAR and DSGE models has long been identified as an important yet problematic issue in the literature. This is due to the fact that many such simulations have been...

Purpose Forecasts of commodity prices are vital issues to market participants and policy makers. Those of corn are of no exception, considering its strategic importance. In the present study, the authors assess the forecast problem for the weekly wholesale price index of yellow corn in China...

The dismal performance of professional economic forecasters to foresee the financial crisis has raised serious questions as to the credibility of modern economics. Several efforts have been made to account for this failure. The paper offers a tentative answer based on the lessons that may be...