A substantial amount is incurred in ETF transaction costs each year. This paper examines the performance of a vector autoregressive (VAR) model and other naïve models to time trades in 1,350 ETFs over the 2011 to 2017 period. We find varied spread savings for large and retail ETF traders by...

We study how 9 different market participants trade with respect to 130 different stock return anomalies and how each participant's trades predict returns. Retail investors trade against anomalies, while firms' and short sellers' trades agree with anomalies. Institutional portfolios are weighted...

We give an explicit algorithm and source code for constructing risk models based on machine learning techniques. The resultant covariance matrices are not factor models. Based on empirical backtests, we compare the performance of these machine learning risk models to other constructions,...

In studies of time series momentum (TSM), the Newey-West t-test has size distortion for linear predictive regression with excess returns because of non-stationarity, endogeneity due to correlated errors, and a lack of finite moments due to heavy tails. To solve these problems, we propose a new...

This paper documents a significant time-series momentum effect that is consistent and robust across all examined conventional asset classes from 1969 to 2015. We find that the duration and magnitude of time-series momentum is different in developed and emerging markets, but this is no longer the...

This paper provides evidence of the impact of hedge funds on asset markets. We construct a simple measure of the aggregate illiquidity of hedge fund portfolios, based on the cross-sectional average first order autocorrelation coefficient of hedge fund returns, and show that it has strong and...

We suggest that the term structure of volatility futures (e.g. VIX futures) shows a clear pattern of dependence on the current level of VIX index. At the low level of VIX (below 20) the term structure is highly upward sloping; at the high VIX level (over 30) it is strongly downward sloping. We...

This study introduces an innovative approach to measuring the “style-shifting activity” (SSA) of mutual funds using daily returns. Applying our new measure to a comprehensive sample of 2631 active US equity mutual funds, we show (i) that SSA predicts future performance, especially for...

We propose and test a methodological framework to examine the relation between mutual fund fees and return predictability. Gil-Bazo and Ruiz-Verdu (2009) drew attention to the puzzling fact that funds with worse before-fee performance charge higher fees. We make another contribution to the...

You're probably familiar, at least in passing, with the 'convexity' of long-term bonds - i.e. that yields dropping 1% produce a bigger price move than yields rising 1%. A significant amount of brainpower has gone into understanding all the ramifications of this convexity in the fixed income...