support of production of the projections produced for the Monetary Policy Committee's quarterly Inflation Reports. In this …

We introduce a new measure called Inflation-at-Risk (I@R) associated with (left and right) tail inflation risk. We … estimate I@R using survey-based density forecasts. We show that it contains information not covered by usual inflation risk … indicators which focus on inflation uncertainty and do not distinguish between the risks of low or high future inflation outcomes …

What is the probability of high inflation; how high, when? These questions are important to all investors since even … characterizes this as The War On Savers. Higher inflation is possible, at 4% or more, with even worse effects. There are heated … debates about the probability and timing of high inflation, but our review of the extensive literature reveals no reliable way …

prediction procedure is applied to a seven variable system with focus on forecasting the Swedish inflation. …

This paper implements recursive techniques to estimate the equilibrium level of M2 velocity and to forecast inflation …-time forecasts of inflation and evaluate the performance of the forecasts obtained from the alternative models. We find that while a … P* model assuming a constant equilibrium velocity does not provide accurate inflation forecasts in the 1990s, a model …

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has moved away from a broad money target toward a “multiple indicators” approach to the … has been de-emphasized, developments in the monetary aggregates remain an important indicator of future inflation. The … exchange rate and import prices are also relevant, particularly for inflation in the manufacturing sector …

revisit claims in the literature that money growth is Granger-causal for inflation at low frequencies. Applying frequency …-specific tests in a comprehensive system setup for euro-area data we consider various theoretical predictors of inflation. A general … Granger-causal for low-frequency inflation movements, and all variables affect money growth. We therefore interpret opposite …