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We find out-of-sample predictability of commodity futures excess returns using forecast combinations of 28 potential predictors. Such gains in forecast accuracy translate into economically significant improvements in certainty equivalent returns and Sharpe ratios for a mean-variance investor....
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, Dow-Jones, Nikkei, S&P 500, Brent, and WTI futures can be effective hedging instruments. We use a wavelet-based dynamic … hedging model to account for heterogeneous investors in the Bitcoin market. For a short-term horizon, soybean futures reduce … are the best for in-sample hedging in a long-term horizon, whereas live cattle futures have the best out …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013334846
We derive a model-free option-based formula to estimate the contribution of market frictions to expected returns (CFER) within an asset pricing setting. We estimate CFER for the U.S. optionable stocks. We document that CFER is sizable, it predicts stock returns and it subsumes the effect of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011932555
We discover a new currency strategy with highly desirable return and diversification properties, which uses the predictive capability of currency volatility risk premia for currency returns. The volatility risk premium -- the difference between expected realized volatility and model-free implied...
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We present an explicit framework for horizon based investing that results in superior expected risk adjusted returns and lower turnover. The framework includes a means of empirically determining an expected horizon and its confidence intervals, an alpha model structure linking horizon with the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012896322
Chapter 1 Introduction -- Chapter 2 Efficient markets -- Chapter 3 Equity premium -- Chapter 4 The dividend ratio model -- Chapter 5 Bond valuation -- Chapter 6 Yield curves -- Chapter 7 Term structure models -- Chapter 8 Real estate market -- Chapter 9 Derivative securities -- Chapter 10...
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