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Timing of Predictions in Dynamic Cheap Talk : Experts vs. Quacks
Smirnov, Aleksei - 2019
of privately known competence, who cares about his reputation, chooses the timing of the forecast regarding the outcome …. Further, any report hurts the forecaster's reputation in the short run, with later reports incurring larger penalties. The … reputation of a silent forecaster, on the other hand, gradually improves over time …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012859563
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Strategic Distortions in Analyst Forecasts in the Presence of Short-Term Institutional Investors
Bilinski, Pawel - 2018
We document that analysts cater to short-term investors by issuing optimistic target prices. Catering dominates among analysts at brokers without an investment banking arm as they face lower reputational cost. The market does not see through the analyst catering activity and their forecasts lead...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012937400
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Information Content in Sneer Asymmetry : An Application to OOS Implied Volatility Forecasting
Choi, Youngsoo - 2012
The ad hoc Black-Scholes (AHBS) model is one of the most widely used option valuation models among practitioners models. The main contribution of this study is methodological. We have two main results: (1) we make the empirical observation that typically the call and put sneers are discontinuous...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013097543
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A Copula Approach to Test Asymmetric Information with Applications to Predictive Modeling
Shi, Peng; Valdez, Emiliano A. - 2011
In this article, we provide an alternative evidence of asymmetric information in automobile insurance based on a copula model. We use the Frank’s copula to jointly model the type of policy coverage chosen and the number of accidents, with the dependence parameter providing for evidence of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014191732
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Predictive Policing : An Information Design Approach
Ichihashi, Shota - 2022
Citizens may engage in crime, depending on the probability of being searched and their types such as legal earning opportunities. Police observes information about citizens' types and allocates search efforts to catch citizens who commit crimes. I show that the police who has full information...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014076370
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Dynamic Implied Correlation Modeling and Forecasting in Structured Finance
Löhr, Sebastian - 2015
Correlations are the main drivers for credit portfolio risk and constitute a Major element in pricing credit derivatives such as synthetic single-tranche collateralized debt obligation swaps. This paper suggests a dynamic panel regression Approach to model and forecast implied correlations....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013034784
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Validation of rating systems
Güttler, André - 2005
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003226136
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Statistical modeling for credit ratings
Vana, Laura - 2018
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011982707
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Credit ratings and credit risk : is one measure enough?
Hilscher, Jens; Wilson, Mungo - In: Management science : journal of the Institute for … 63 (2017) 10, pp. 3414-3437
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011760509
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The impact of heterogeneous signals on stock price predictability in a rational expectations model
Winter, Christoph - 2018
Through extending a standard Grossman and Stiglitz (1980) noisy rational expectations economy by a heterogeneous signal structure with signal-specific differences in uncertainty, we show that price momentum as well as reversal are not intrinsically at odds with rational behavior. Differences in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011952636