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realistic dynamics of riskneutral and realized volatilities. I provide evidence that the jump risk in volatility of long run … of the VIX or realized stock volatility. In contrast, a jump-in-volatility LRR model generates a smaller variance risk … premium but better fits the VIX and the realized stock volatility dynamics. Finally, jump-in-volatility models generate …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009734341
We solve a dynamic equilibrium model with generalized disappointment aversion preferences and continuous state endowment dynamics. We apply the framework to the term structure of interest rates and show that the model generates an upward sloping term structure of nominal interest rates, a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012855459
We solve a dynamic general equilibrium model with generalized disappointment aversion preferences and continuous state endowment dynamics. We apply the framework to the term structure of interest rates and show that the model generates an upward sloping term structure of nominal interest rates,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013005999
In this paper we propose a stochastic volatility model for crude oil markets that has the particularity to feature a … OVX volatility data. The model characterizes two states: a normal state with low volatility and negative variance premium … and acrisis state with high volatility and positive variance risk premium. The estimated states are consistent with GDP …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013307498
This paper builds and implements a multifactor stochastic volatility model for the latent (and observable) volatility … Carlo simulation methodologies for estimation, inference, and model adequacy assessment. Stochastic volatility is the main … way time-varying volatility is modelled in financial markets. An appropriate scientific model description, specifying …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013050714
We study whether prices of traded options contain information about future extreme market events. Our option-implied conditional expectation of market loss due to tail events, or tail loss measure, predicts future market returns, magnitude, and probability of the market crashes, beyond and above...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010226098
Based on the theory of static replication of variance swaps we assess the sign and magnitude of variance risk premiums … general shape of the implied volatility function of the corresponding currency pair. Overall, we conclude that there is a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010410031
predictive capability of currency volatility risk premia for currency returns. The volatility risk premium -- the difference … between expected realized volatility and model-free implied volatility -- reflects the costs of insuring against currency … volatility fluctuations, and the strategy sells high-insurance-cost currencies and buys low-insurance-cost currencies. The …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013035847
This paper reviews the predictability evidence of the variance risk premium: (1) it predicts significant positive risk premiums across equity, bond, currency, and credit markets; (2) the predictability peaks at a few month horizons and dies out afterwards; (3) such a short-run predictability is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012940510
uncertainty and recursive utility function. Within such a framework, the negative volatility risk premium implied from option …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013117074