state-level initial unemployment insurance claims, changes in the unemployment rate, and changes in private employment. The …

In this work the precision and stability of the forecasts of Chile's unemployment rates are analyzed. Said models were … the signs of persistence that the unemployment indicator shows in its behavior; nevertheless, starting from the estimation … obtained, which empirically upholds the proposal of addressing the unemployment rate as a non stationary series. The evaluation …

jubilee and ldhmm packages in R. The input data is the unemployment rate (UNRATE) which is released monthly by the U … generates the recession probability. Our model demonstrates that positive momentum in unemployment kicks off a recession. The …

We consider a logistic transform of the monthly US unemployment rate. For this time series, a pseudo out … linear and nonlinear models turn out to be valuable tools for predicting the US unemployment rate in the short-term …

In this paper we study international linkages when forecasting unemployment rates in a sample of 24 OECD economies. We … propose a Global Unemployment Factor (GUF) and test its predictive ability considering in-sample and out-of-sample exercises … information to predict domestic unemployment rates, at least for these last seven countries …

erwarten viele Beobachter zum Herbst einen dramatischen Anstieg der Arbeitslosigkeit mit einer baldigen Überschreitung der Vier … den Sommermonaten August und September aller Voraussicht nach völlig ruhig. Saisonal bedingt geht die Arbeitslosigkeit …

policy mix of unemployment insurance agencies. We analyze unique data on three sources of information on the probability of … re-employment within 6 months (RE6), for the same individuals sampled from the inflow into unemployment. First, they were …

the same individuals sampled from the inflow into unemployment. First, they were asked for their perceived probability of … nach Eintritt in die Arbeitslosigkeit. Erstens wurden Arbeitslose kurz nach Beginn der Arbeitslosigkeit nach ihrer …

the same individuals sampled from the inflow into unemployment. First, they were asked for their perceived probability of …

Unemployment is notoriously difficult to predict. In previous studies, once country fixed effects are added to panel … estimates, few variables predict changes in unemployment rates. Using panel data for 29 European countries - Austria; Belgium … predict changes in the unemployment rate 12 months in advance based on individuals' fears of unemployment, their perceptions …