inflation, we examine models of inflation that do and do not use the output gap. The Phillips curve, which relates inflation to … real activity, is regarded as the maintained theory of inflation. Models of inflation without the output gap include the … paper examines ten different models of inflation and estimates sixty-seven different specifications, some of which …

statistics in forecasting inflation has often been relegated to simple univariate or Phillips curve approaches, thus limiting … extreme trimmed-mean measure - the median CPI - improves the forecasts of both core and headline inflation (CPI and personal … consumption expenditures) across our set of monthly and quarterly BVARs. Although the inflation forecasting improvements are …

are often used for monetary policy. Until now, the use of trimmed-mean price statistics in forecasting inflation has often … the inflation forecasting improvements are perhaps not surprising given the current literature on core inflation …

statistics in forecasting inflation has often been relegated to simple univariate or Phillips curve approaches, thus limiting … extreme trimmed-mean measure—the median CPI—improves the forecasts of both core and headline inflation (CPI and personal … consumption expenditures) across our set of monthly and quarterly BVARs. Although the inflation forecasting improvements are …

Inflation (PCCI), a measure of underlying inflation in the euro area. The PCCI reflects the view that underlying inflation … component of inflation. Methodologically, it relies on a generalised dynamic factor model estimated on a large set of … disaggregated HICP inflation rates for 12 euro area countries. For each individual inflation rate, we estimate a low …

might be useful in the forecasting of aggregate inflation. Trimmed-mean inflation estimators have been shown to be useful … devices for forecasting headline PCE inflation. But does this stem from their ability to signal the underlying trend, or does … question by augmenting a “hard to beat” benchmark inflation forecasting model of headline PCE price inflation with robust …

Short-term inflation forecasting is an essential component of the monetary policy projections at the Central Bank of … Nigeria. This paper proposes four short-term headline inflation forecasting models using the SARIMA and SARIMAX processes and … SARIMAX model. This model is, therefore, recommended for use in short-term forecasting of headline inflation in Nigeria. The …