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False and missed alarms in seasonal forecasts affect individual adaptation choices
Hembach-Stunden, Katharina; Vorlaufer, Tobias; Engel, … - In: Q open : a journal of agricultural, climate, … 4 (2024) 1, pp. 1-22
risk of extreme climate conditions. However, being confronted with inaccurate forecast systems may undermine individuals …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015053857
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How to Reveal People's Preferences : Comparing Time Consistency and Predictive Power of Multiple Price List Risk Elicitation Methods
Csermely, Tamás - 2015
The question of how to measure and classify people's risk preferences is of substantial importance in the field of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013027098
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Partially unforeseen events : corrections and correcting formulae for forecasts
Charin, Aleksandr A. - In: Expert journal of economics 2 (2014) 2, pp. 69-79
A hypothesis of uncertain future was created and first applied in the field of utility and prospect theories. An extension of application of the hypothesis to the field of forecasting is considered in the article. The concept of inevitability of unforeseen events is a part of the hypothesis of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012057407
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Entscheidungsmodelle auf der Grundlage von Szenarien
Götze, Uwe - In: Die Szenario-Technik - Werkzeug für den Umgang mit …, (pp. 105-126). 1995
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001291689
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Estimating uncertainties using judgmental forecasts with expert heterogeneity
Bansal, Saurabh; Gutierrez, Genaro J. - In: Operations research 68 (2020) 2, pp. 363-380
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012213337
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How to predict gender-differences in choice under risk : a case for the use of formalized models
Powell, Melanie; Schubert, Renate; Gysler, Matthias - 2001
tries to integrate gender aspects into five main models from decision theory. We can show that according to the model …Women are stereotyped as more risk averse than men. Empirical and experimental investigations seem to support the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001726237
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Forecasting Compositional Risk Allocations
Boonen, Tim J. - 2017
We analyse models for panel data that arise in risk allocation problems, when a given set of sources are the cause of … an aggregate risk value. We focus on the modeling and forecasting of proportional contributions to risk. Compositional …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012944497
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Tracking global economic uncertainty : implications for the euro area
Bobasu, Alina; Geis, André; Quaglietti, Lucia; Ricci, … - 2021
This paper sheds light on the impact of global macroeconomic uncertainty on the euro area economy. We build on the methodology proposed by Jurado et al. (2015) and estimate global as well as country-specific measures of economic uncertainty for fifteen key euro area trade partners and the euro...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012503567
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Forecasting economic decisions under risk : the predictive importance of choice-process data
Mueller, Steffen Q.; Ring, Patrick; Schmidt, Maria - 2019 - Version: January 2019
We investigate various statistical methods for forecasting risky choices and identify important decision predictors …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011964372
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Calibration of quantum decision theory, aversion to large losses and predictability of probabilistic choices
Vincent, Sabine; Jukalov, Vjačeslav I.; Kovalenko, Tatyana - 2016
We present the first calibration of quantum decision theory (QDT) to an empirical data set. The data comprise 91 …. The prediction of choice reversal is then refined by introducing heterogeneity between decision makers through a … differentiation of the population into two similar sized groups in terms of "over-confident" and "contrarian" decision makers. This …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011516615