Showing 1 - 10 of 16,124
In this study, we model realized volatility constructed from intraday high-frequency data. We explore the possibility … of confusing long memory and structural breaks in the realized volatility of the following spot exchange rates: EUR …' realized volatility. From the Bai – Perron test, we found structural breakpoints that match significant events in financial …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012900291
We provide a systematic comparison of the out-of-sample forecasts based on multivariate macroeconomic models and forecast combinations for the euro against the US dollar, the British pound, the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen. We use profit maximization measures based on directional accuracy...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010412045
exchange rate with respect to the currencies of major trading partner country USA. The daily data is used for the time period … distribution. We find that the volatility of the Pakistani rupee is best elucidated by the EGARCH process as using the past … volatility. The coefficient of moving average of the conditional mean equation suggests that percentage change in the exchange is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013107625
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012664814
We follow the behavioral equilibrium exchange rate approach by Clark and MacDonald (1998) to derive equilibrium real effective exchange rates and currency misalignments for the US and its 16 major trading partners. We apply cointegration and panel cointegration techniques to derive fully...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011374380
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008903193
We propose a fundamentals-based econometric model for the weekly changes in the euro-dollar rate with the distinctive feature of mixing economic variables quoted at different frequencies. The model obtains good in-sample fit and, more importantly, encouraging out-of-sample forecasting results at...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013111102
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003973905
The sum of squared intraday returns provides an unbiased and almost error-free measure of ex-post volatility. In this … paper we develop a nonlinear Autoregressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average (ARFIMA) model for realized volatility …, which accommodates level shifts, day-of-the-week effects, leverage effects and volatility level effects. Applying the model …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011335205
estimation windows. It develops theoretical results for random walks when their drift and/or volatility are subject to one or …This paper considers forecast averaging when the same model is used but estimation is carried out over different … more structural breaks. It is shown that compared to using forecasts based on a single estimation window, averaging over …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012714199