One of the main challenges for life actuaries is modeling and predicting the future mortality evolution. To this end, several stochastic mortality models have been proposed in literature, starting from the pivotal approach of the Lee-Carter model. These models essentially use the ARIMA processes...

A hypothesis of uncertain future was created and first applied in the field of utility and prospect theories. An extension of application of the hypothesis to the field of forecasting is considered in the article. The concept of inevitability of unforeseen events is a part of the hypothesis of...

In this paper we provide a new expression for the true one-year prediction uncertainty within the chain-ladder model of Mack, which can be useful for quantification and sensitivity analysis.We also show that, in case sufficiently large sized claims trapezoids are considered (which might not be...