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Let X = (X1,...,Xp) be a stochastic vector having joint density function fX(x) with partitions X1 = (X1,...,Xk) and X2 = (Xk 1,...,Xp). A new method for estimating the conditional density function of X1 given X2 is presented. It is based on locally Gaussian approximations, but simplified in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012977928
high-frequency data better and produce more accurate forecasts than competing realized volatility and option …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012855793
We propose exible models for multivariate realized volatility dynamics which involve generalizations of the Box …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010344500
We propose a flexible GARCH-type model for the prediction of volatility in financial time series. The approach relies … computationally attractive and feasible for large dimensions. We demonstrate its strong predictive potential for financial volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014051065
frequency can be obtained almost as precisely as if volatility is observable by simply incorporating the strong information … content of realized volatility measures extracted from high-frequency data. For this purpose, we introduce asymptotically … exact volatility measurement equations in state space form and propose a Bayesian estimation approach. Our highly efficient …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013128339
We propose a hybrid penalized averaging for combining parametric and non-parametric quantile forecasts when faced with a large number of predictors. This approach goes beyond the usual practice of combining conditional mean forecasts from parametric time series models with only a few predictors....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012859663
This paper considers the estimation of a semi-parametric single-index regression model that allows for nonlinear predictive relationships. This model is useful for predicting financial asset returns, whose observed behavior is described by a stationary process, when the multiple non-stationary...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012822931
In this paper, we propose three new predictive models: the multi-step nonparametric predictive regression model and the multi-step additive predictive regression model, in which the predictive variables are locally stationary time series; and the multi-step time-varying coefficient predictive...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011775136
Consider forecasting the economic variable Y_{t h} with predictors X_{t}, where h is the forecast horizon. This paper introduces a semiparametric method that generates forecast intervals of Y_{t h}|X_{t} from point forecast models. First, the point forecast model is estimated, thereby taking...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012756248
No consensus has emerged on how to deal with overnight returns when calculating realized volatility in markets where … trading does not take place 24 hours a day. This paper explores several common volatility applications, investigating how the … chosen treatment of overnight returns affects the results. For example, the selection of the best volatility forecasting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013008710