We conduct a series of forecasting experiments to examine how people update their beliefs upon observing others' forecasts. We show that people insufficiently update their beliefs, and that this tendency is only partially explained by the better than average effect. We document that subjects...

This paper documents the existence of Political Forecast Cycles. In a theoretical model of political selection, we show that governments release overly optimistic GDP growth forecasts ahead of elections to increase the reelection probability. The bias arises from lack of commitment if voters are...

I test the predictions of a new asset pricing model regarding the interaction of ex-ante return skewness and the dispersion of analysts' earnings forecasts on a sample of U.S. stocks. I present evidence that skewness and forecast dispersion have an interactive pricing impact, that forecast...

We document that analysts cater to short-term investors by issuing optimistic target prices. Catering dominates among analysts at brokers without an investment banking arm as they face lower reputational cost. The market does not see through the analyst catering activity and their forecasts lead...

This paper studies a robustness of solutions in finite depth of reasoning models. The level-k and cognitive hierarchy models conventionally assume that each player has a commonly known anchor behavior to obtain a sharp prediction. We provide a general framework to examine whether the obtained...

Motivated by the question of how one should evaluate professional election forecasters, we study a novel dynamic mechanism design problem without transfers. A principal who wishes to hire only high-quality forecasters is faced with an agent of unknown quality. The agent privately observes...

We conduct a lab experiment to investigate an important corporate prediction market setting: A manager needs information about the state of a project, which workers have, in order to make a state-dependent decision. Workers can potentially reveal this information by trading in a corporate...

We consider a cross-calibration test of predictions by multiple potential experts in a stochastic environment. This test checks whether each expert is calibrated conditional on the predictions made by other experts. We show that this test is good in the sense that a true expert - one informed of...

Citizens may engage in crime, depending on the probability of being searched and their types such as legal earning opportunities. Police observes information about citizens' types and allocates search efforts to catch citizens who commit crimes. I show that the police who has full information...