This paper investigates the predictability of variance and value at-risk (VaR) measures in international stock markets. We use daily stock market returns for G7 countries (the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, Japan, Canada, France, Italy) and generate the realized variance and VaR...

This paper provides an analysis of the predictability of stock returns using market, industry, and firm-level earnings. Contrary to Lamont (1998), we find that neither dividend payout ratio nor the level of aggregate earnings can forecast the excess market return. We show that these variables do...

This paper investigates whether realized and implied volatilities of individual stocks can predict the cross-sectional variation in expected returns. Although the levels of volatilities from the physical and risk-neutral distributions cannot predict future returns, there is a significant...