The objective of the paper is to apply three selected approaches for credit rating prediction, linear discriminant analysis, multinomial logistic regression and decision trees. The models are based on data of European companies' financial indicators and MORE rating. A special attention is paid...

We estimate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on credit risk changes on a large sample of Polish SME firms. The Altman Z"-Score model, which has proven to be a powerful and robust bankruptcy prediction model across many industries and countries, is used to assess over 1,000 SMEs from seven...

I demonstrate that much of the time series variation in the credit spread on high yield bonds is attributable to changes in the “credit risk premium” rather than changes in expected default losses. The credit risk premium is the expected excess return investors earn from bearing default risk...

This paper suggests using a multilayer artificial neural network (ANN) method, known as deep learning ANN, to predict the probability of default (PD) within the survival analysis framework. Deep learning ANN structures consider hidden interconnections among the covariates determining the PD...

As supply chain channels physical, financial, and information flows as well as associated risks, a firm’s supply chain information should be helpful in understanding and predicting its credit risks. Credit ratings as an approximate but important measure of corporate credit risks have been...

There have been 128 defaults among U.S. CDS reference entities between 2001 and 2020. Within this sample, the five-year CDS spread is a significant predictor of corporate default in models with equity market covariates and firm attributes. This finding holds for forecast horizons up to 12...

This study examines whether analysts' decisions to issue cash flows forecasts depend endogenously on their decision to use these forecasts to set target prices. An endogenous switching regression model, with analyst report regimes of disclosure and non-disclosure of cash flow forecasts, shows...

We use the copula approach to study the structure of dependence between sell-side analysts' consensus recommendations and subsequent security returns, with a focus on asymmetric tail dependence. We match monthly vintages of I/B/E/S recommendations for the period January to December 2011 with...

Credit ratings are ordinal predictions for the default risk of an obligor. To evaluate the accuracy of such predictions commonly used measures are the Accuracy Ratio or, equivalently, the Area under the ROC curve. The disadvantage of these measures is that they treat default as a binary variable...