The article focuses on forecasting idiosyncratic hedge fund return volatility using a non-linear Markov switching GARCH (MS-GARCH) framework in which the conditional mean and volatility of systematic and idiosyncratic hedge fund return components may exhibit dynamic Markov switching behaviour....

This paper develops a unified approach to comprehensively analyse individual hedge fund return predictability, both in- and out-of-sample. In-sample, we find that variation in hedge fund performance across changing market conditions is widespread and economically significant. The predictability...

This paper develops a unified approach to comprehensively analyze individual hedge fund return predictability, both in- and out-of-sample. In-sample, we find that variation in hedge fund performance across changing market conditions is widespread and economically significant. The predictability...

You're probably familiar, at least in passing, with the 'convexity' of long-term bonds - i.e. that yields dropping 1% produce a bigger price move than yields rising 1%. A significant amount of brainpower has gone into understanding all the ramifications of this convexity in the fixed income...

Three concepts: stochastic discount factors, multi-beta pricing and mean-variance efficiency, are at the core of modern empirical asset pricing. This chapter reviews these paradigms and the relations among them, concentrating on conditional asset-pricing models where lagged variables serve as...

Using a novel equity lending dataset, this paper is the first to show that expected returns strongly and negatively predict future equity lending fees. In comparing two expected return measures, I find that a rational expected return has stronger predictive power of future short selling activity...

While the majority of the predictability literature has been devoted to the predictability of traditional asset classes, the literature on the predictability of hedge fund returns is quite scanty. We focus on assessing the out-of-sample predictability of hedge fund strategies by employing an...

This paper provides evidence of the impact of hedge funds on asset markets. We construct a simple measure of the aggregate illiquidity of hedge fund portfolios, based on the cross-sectional average first order autocorrelation coefficient of hedge fund returns, and show that it has strong and...

This article analyzes the manifold situations in which the efficient-market hypothesis (EMH) has influenced — or has failed to influence — federal securities regulation and state corporate law, and the prospective roles for the EMH in these contexts. In federal securities regulation, the EMH...

In this study, we propose a set of covariates that exploit information content of hedge funds' relative size, performance, growth, tail risk, and past liquidation rate, in predicting their liquidation. Empirical results show that our proposed covariates exhibit significant predictive power for...