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One of the key components of financial risk management is risk measurement. This typically requires modeling … financial econometrics literature have developed several models based on Extreme Value Theory (EVT) to carry out these tasks …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011866456
estimators of market risk. Despite advances in the theory and practice of evaluating risk, existing measures are notoriously poor … extreme value theory (EVT) to propose a multivariate estimation procedure for value-at-risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES …The catastrophic failures of risk management systems in 2008 bring to the forefront the need for accurate and flexible …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013100621
We study a class of backtests for forecast distributions in which the test statistic is a spectral transformation that weights exceedance events by a function of the modeled probability level. The choice of the kernel function makes explicit the user's priorities for model performance. The class...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011927115
influential for Value at Risk (VaR) performance than the conditional volatility specification. We also show that some recently … proposed asymmetric probability distributions and the APARCH and FGARCH volatility specifications beat more standard … alternatives for VaR forecasting, and they should be preferred when estimating tail risk. The flexibility of the free power …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012949316
We define risk spillover as the dependence of a given asset variance on the past covariances and variances of other … assets. Building on this idea, we propose the use of a highly flexible and tractable model to forecast the volatility of an … international equity portfolio. According to the risk management strategy proposed, portfolio risk is seen as a specific combination …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010407672
The paper develops a tail risk forecasting model that incorporates the wealth of economic and financial information … available to risk managers. The approach can be viewed as a regularized extension of the two-stage GARCH-EVT model of McNeil and … extreme value distribution of risk. We use a rich data set from the US equity market to explore when this additional …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013214142
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011282095
construct managed portfolios of a risk-free asset and market index. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010226098
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014465107
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014292519