perception of economic well-being, possibly influenced by such tactics, predicts war and peace onset. Using unique data … war onset during periods of rebel recruitment, and with earlier peace onset in general. These results hold regardless of … suggest that civilian perception of well-being ought to be considered seriously as a determinant of war and peace …

Intro -- Contents -- Preface -- 1. The Dilemma of Getting to War -- 2. Predicting War in Theory -- 3. Testing the … Theory -- 4. Predicting War in Practice: Crisis and War -- 5. Getting to War in U.S. Diplomatic History -- 6. Conclusion and … Implications for Theory -- Appendixes -- Appendix 1: Data Sets -- Appendix 2: Coding Instructions, Nations and Newspapers …