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Forecasting series containing offsetting breaks : old school and new school methods of forecasting transnational terrorism

Enders, Walter; Liu, Yu; Prodan, Ruxandra - In: Defence and peace economics 20 (2009) 6, pp. 441-463

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003938360

Models Versus Rankings : Forecasting Political Violence

Usanov, Artur N. - 2017

We compare the predictive performance in forecasting the onset of large scale political violence worldwide of five statistical models and three commonly used fragility/instability indices using PITF and UCDP data for the period 2000-2015. We find that the models typically outperform the rankings...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012961403

A prediction and analysis model of complex system based on extension neural network : taking the prediction and analysis of terrorist events in the big data environment as an examp...

Tang, Yachun - In: International journal of information technology and … 23 (2024) 2, pp. 119-136

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015064849

Three essays on fiscal policy and business cycle analysis

Breuer, Christian - 2013

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010238435

Is forecasting future suicide rates possible? : application of the experience curve

Chang, Yu Sang; Lee, Jinsoo - 2010

Many OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) countries have implemented national suicide … prevention strategies. An accurate forecast of future suicide rate, if available, will be useful for planning and evaluation of a … suicide prevention strategy. Therefore, we have developed a simple forecasting model of suicide rate for 15 OECD countries. We …