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Velocity futures markets : does the Fed need a structural model?
Jackson, Aaron L.; Sumner, Scott B. - In: Economic inquiry : journal of the Western Economic … 44 (2006) 4, pp. 716-728
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003384301
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Problems of prognostic - analytical support of the interrelations between business and state structures
Širov, Aleksandr A. - In: Studies on Russian economic development : the official … 21 (2010) 3, pp. 239-248
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003980934
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Currency crises, uncertain fundamentals and private-sector forecasts
Ruelke, Jan-Christoph; Pierdzioch, Christian - In: Applied economics letters 20 (2013) 4/6, pp. 489-494
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009709361
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Velocity Futures Markets : Does the Fed Need a Structural Model?
Jackson, Aaron L. - 2010
Previous proposals suggesting monetary policy makers target private-sector forecasts have been shown to be problematic. As policy becomes more effective, private-sector forecasts become less informative. Under perfect stabilization private-sector forecasts provide no useful guidance to monetary...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012716975
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Predicting bankruptcy in private firms : towards a stepwise regression procedure
Bauweraerts, Jonathan - In: International journal of financial research 7 (2016) 2, pp. 147-153
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011577134
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Modelling and Predicting Labor Force Productivity
Kitov, Ivan - 2009
Labor productivity in Turkey, Spain, Belgium, Austria, Switzerland, and New Zealand has been analyzed and modeled. These counties extend the previously analyzed set of the US, UK, Japan, France, Italy, and Canada. Modelling is based on the link between the rate of labor participation and real...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013159944
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Forecasting the Absolute Volume of Job Search Activities using Auto-regressive Neural Networks and Extreme Learning Machines Combined
Drago, Carlo - 2023
The identification of the business cycle turn points is a challenging task. In this context, the evolution of new data typologies as internet searches data strongly impacted the construction of approaches practical to forecast macroeconomic variables. This work emphasizes the significance of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014259895
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Stochastic population analysis : a functional data approach
Fang, Lei; Härdle, Wolfgang - 2015
Based on the Lee-Carter (LC) model, the benchmark in population forecasting, a variety of extensions and modifications are proposed in this paper. We investigate one of the extensions, the Hyndman-Ullah (HU) method and apply it to Asian demographic data sets: China, Japan and Taiwan. It combines...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010477583
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Stochastic population forecast for Germany and its consequence for the German pension system
Härdle, Wolfgang; Mysickova, Alena - 2009
Population forecasts are crucial for many social, political and economic decisions. Official population projections rely in general on deterministic models which use different scenarios for future vital rates to indicate uncertainty. However, this technique shows substantial weak points such as...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003814452
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What point of a distribution summarises point predictions?
Kröger, Sabine; Pierrot, Thibaud - 2019
of an iid random variable. We set up a laboratory experiment where the participants act as forecasters predicting the … their central tendencies. As is standard in survey measures, the subjects in our experiment must report their best guess of … the experiment are based on a percentile while almost 60% are based on a numerical value. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012115998