empirical part consists of a cointegration analysis with an error correction mechanism from the mid 80s until 2005. We are able …

Forecasts of inflation in the United States since the mid eighties have had smaller errors than in the past, but those … their own "Great Moderation." For those countries that did not attain macroeconomic stability, inflation forecasting … monetary regime does, makes possible the estimation of parsimonious inflation models for all available data (eight decades for …

small set of simple bivariate closed-loop time-series models for the prediction of price inflation and of long- and short …-linear VAR with threshold cointegration based on data from Germany, Japan, UK, and the U.S. Following a traditional comparative … adequate penalty for the complexity of candidate models. -- threshold cointegration ; parametric bootstrap ; model averaging …