Showing 1 - 10 of 21
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001525563
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001415036
The first official data releases of quarterly real GDP for the euro area are published about eight weeks after the end of the reference quarters. Meanwhile, ongoing economic developments must be assessed from various, more readily available, monthly indicators. We examine in the context of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013319574
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008659782
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011448732
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011618253
This paper evaluates models that exploit timely monthly releases to compute early estimates of current quarter GDP (now-casting) in the euro area. We compare traditional methods used at institutions with a new method proposed by Giannone, Reichlin, and Small (2005). The method consists in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003794044
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003902227
We derive forecast weights and uncertainty measures for assessing the role of individual series in a dynamic factor model (DFM) to forecast euro area GDP from monthly indicators. The use of the Kalman filter allows us to deal with publication lags when calculating the above measures. We find...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003472994
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003705012