Practitioners in the electricity industry aim to assess the value of power plants or other real options several months or even years ahead of operation. Such a valuation is notably required for hedging purposes. The revenue streams to be earned in the spot market are thereby already secured on...

Risk neutral densities (RND) can be used to forecast the price of the underlying basis for the option, or it may be used to price other derivates based on the same sequence. The method adopted in this paper to calculate the RND is to firts estimate daily the diffusion process of the underlying...