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Stochastic population analysis : a functional data approach

Fang, Lei; Härdle, Wolfgang - 2015

Based on the Lee-Carter (LC) model, the benchmark in population forecasting, a variety of extensions and modifications are proposed in this paper. We investigate one of the extensions, the Hyndman-Ullah (HU) method and apply it to Asian demographic data sets: China, Japan and Taiwan. It combines...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010477583

A principal component simulation of age-specific fertility : impacts of family and social policy on reproductive behavior in Germany

Vanella, Patrizio; Deschermeier, Philipp - 2018

This contribution proposes a simulation approach for the indirect estimation of age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs …) and the total fertility rate (TFR) for Germany via time series modeling of the principal components of the ASFRs. The … probability of 75%. Based on this result, it is unlikely that the fertility level will fall back to its extremely low levels of …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011860247

The Impact of Pandemic on Fertility in Russia : A Few Assumptions for the Forecast

Kazenin, Konstantin - 2021

fertility in developed countries. The significance of the outcome of these studies is under consideration designed to forecast … changes in fertility resulted from the pandemic in Russia, as well as to plan state policies to support fertility under the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013230257

Stochastic population forecast for Germany and its consequence for the German pension system

Härdle, Wolfgang; Mysickova, Alena - 2009

for Germany is derived through a stochastic population renewal process using forecasts of mortality, fertility and … indices of mortality and fertility rates. These models are then used in the simulation of future vital rates to obtain age …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003814452

Analytical Prediction of Transitions Probabilities in the Conditional Logit Model

Bonin, Holger; Schneider, Hilmar - 2021

The paper derives analytical transitions probabilities following an exogenous shock to the deterministic component in the conditional logit model. The solution draws on the postestimation distribution of the model's stochastic component, identified on the basis of a direct utility maximization...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013319505

Forecasting labour supply and population : an integrated stochastic model

Fuchs, Johann; Söhnlein, Doris; Weber, Brigitte; … - 2017 - Aktualisierte Fassung vom 17. Mai 2017

This paper presents a stochastic integrated model to forecast the German population and labour supply until 2060. Within a cohort-component approach, the population forecast applies principal components to birth, mortality, emigration and immigration rates. The labour force participation rates...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011586534