Motivated by the question of how one should evaluate professional election forecasters, we study a novel dynamic mechanism design problem without transfers. A principal who wishes to hire only high-quality forecasters is faced with an agent of unknown quality. The agent privately observes...

A principal hires an agent to work on a long-term project that culminates in a breakthrough or a breakdown. At each time, the agent privately chooses to work or shirk. Working increases the arrival rate of breakthroughs and decreases the arrival rate of breakdowns. To motivate the agent to work,...

Demand forecasting has recently become a prime candidate for outsourcing. This research investigates how to design an information quality incentive (IQI) mechanism to manage the quality of demand forecasting in a multi-stage model where the company uses a forecaster's demand forecast to manage...

One of the strongest leading indicators of economic activity is the number of people who file for unemployment benefits. Macroeconomists Robert Gordon and James Hamilton have recently examined the historical evidence. According to Hamilton's summary: "... in each of the last six recessions, the...

In this work the precision and stability of the forecasts of Chile's unemployment rates are analyzed. Said models were obtained by a family of SARIMA (Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) models, between February 1986 and February 2010. The SARIMA projections are compared with the...

The identification of the business cycle turn points is a challenging task. In this context, the evolution of new data typologies as internet searches data strongly impacted the construction of approaches practical to forecast macroeconomic variables. This work emphasizes the significance of...