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Do Perceptions of Economic Well-Being Predict the Onset of War and Peace?

Swee, Eik - 2019

perception of economic well-being, possibly influenced by such tactics, predicts war and peace onset. Using unique data … bracketing the onset of the Nepalese Civil War, we find that higher levels of perceived income adequacy are associated with later … war onset during periods of rebel recruitment, and with earlier peace onset in general. These results hold regardless of …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012861302

The term structure of expectations

Crump, Richard K.; Eusepi, Stefano; Mönch, Emanuel; … - 2021

Economic theory predicts that intertemporal decisions depend critically on expectations about future outcomes. Using the universe of professional survey forecasts for the United States, we document the behavior of the entire term structure of expectations for output growth, inflation, and the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012660381

Bubbles, crashes and information contagion in large-group asset market experiments

Hommes, Cars H.; Kopányi-Peuker, Anita; Sonnemans, Joep - 2019

We experimentally investigate how price expectations are formed in a large asset market where subjects' only task is to forecast the future price of a risky asset. The realized prices depend on these expectations. We observe small (6 participants) and large markets (about 100 participants). In...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011979625

Individual expectations and aggregate behavior in learning to forecast experiments

Hommes, Cars (contributor); Lux, Thomas (contributor) - 2008

Models with heterogeneous interacting agents explain macro phenomena through interactions at the micro level. We propose genetic algorithms as a model for individual expectations to explain aggregate market phenomena. The model explains all stylized facts observed in aggregate price fluctuations...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003777257

The bright but right view? : a new type of evidence on entrepreneurial optimism

Bengtsson, Ola; Ekeblom, Daniel - 2014

Existing empirical evidence suggests that entrepreneurs are optimists, a finding researchers often interpret as evidence of a behavioral bias in entrepreneurial decision-making. We revisit this claim by analyzing an unusually large survey dataset (180,814 responses) that allows us to create a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010247380

Are consumer expectations theory-consistent? : the role of macroeconomic determinants and central bank communication

Dräger, Lena; Lamla, Michael; Pfajfar, Damjan - 2013

Using the microdata of the Michigan Survey of Consumers, we evaluate whether U.S. consumers form macroeconomic expectations consistent with different economic concepts. We check whether their expectations are in line with the Phillips Curve, the Taylor Rule and the Income Fisher Equation. We...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010201163

A note on the representative adaptive learning algorithm

Berardi, Michele; Galimberti, Jaqueson K. - 2014

We compare forecasts from different adaptive learning algorithms and calibrations applied to US real-time data on inflation and growth. We find that the Least Squares with constant gains adjusted to match (past) survey forecasts provides the best overall performance both in terms of forecasting...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010344932

A general approach to recovering market expectations from futures prices with an application to crude oil

Baumeister, Christiane; Kilian, Lutz - 2016

Futures markets are a potentially valuable source of information about price expectations. Exploiting this information has proved difficult in practice, because time-varying risk premia often render the futures price a poor measure of the market expectation of the price of the underlying asset....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011434566

Do survey-based expectations mimic inflation in Nigeria?

Ibrahim, Adamu - In: CBN journal of applied statistics 6 (2015) 1, pp. 301-315

Survey-based expectations are mostly used by monetary authorities for inflation forecasts and evaluation of the credibility of their inflation fighting policies. It is also an important link in the monetary policy transmission mechanism. This study examined the predictive ability of business...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011473533

The misspecification of expectations in New Keynesian models : a DSGE-VAR approach

Cole, Stephen J.; Milani, Fabio - 2016

This paper tests the ability of popular New Keynesian models, which are traditionally used to study monetary policy and business cycles, to match the data regarding a key channel for monetary transmission: the dynamic interactions between macroeconomic variables and their corresponding...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011541080

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