striking negative correlation between the evolution of the long-run coefficient on inflation in the monetary rule and the … evolution of the persistence and predictability of inflation relative to a trend component. Using a standard sticky-price model …, we show that a more aggressive policy stance towards inflation causes a decline in inflation predictability, providing a …

The goal of this paper is to construct leading indicators that anticipate inflation cycle turning points on a real time … monitoring basis. As a first step, turning points of the IPCA inflation are determined using a periodic stochastic Markov … is then used to extract common cyclical movements in a set of variables that display predictive content for inflation …

This paper evaluates inflation forecasts made by Norges Bank which is a successful forecast targeting central bank. It … is expected that Norges Bank produces inflation forecasts that are on average better than other forecasts, both "naive … terms of too high speed of adjustment to the inflation target is supported by the evidence. Norges Bank's forecasts are …

We explore the ability of traditional core inflation – consumer prices excluding food and energy – to predict headline … CPI annual inflation. We analyze a sample of OECD and non-OECD economies using monthly data from January 1994 to March … common wisdom about the ability of core inflation to forecast headline inflation, and suggest a careful weighting of the …

generalized Phillip curve for three inflation-targeting countries and produced evidence of significant time-variation in most of … the predictors. We compare the performance of the priors in density forecast of inflation allowing for constant and …

five inflation targeting countries (the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Sweden and the United Kingdom). We find that in …

democratic version. Next, the model predictions are tested on real data on five inflation targeting countries (the Czech Republic …

uncertainty of inflation and GDP growth forecasts into an otherwise standard New Keynesian model. We show that certainty … react significantly to inflation forecast uncertainty by reducing their policy rates in times of higher inflation …