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The Performance of Forecast-Based Monetary Policy Rules Under Model Uncertainty

Williams, John C.; Levin, Andrew T.; Wieland, Volker - 2021

We investigate the performance of forecast-based monetary policy rules using five macroeconomic models that reflect a wide range of views on aggregate dynamics. We identify the key characteristics of rules that are robust to model uncertainty: such rules respond to the one-year ahead inflation...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013320751

Credibility of central banks inflation forecasts

Tura-Gawron, Karolina - 2016 - This version 19/02/2016

Modern monetary policy focuses on credibility and shaping consumers' inflation expectations. According to the concept …-making process and may be a specific intermediate target. The aim of the study is to analyse the credibility of inflation forecasts … credibility index. The inflation forecasts' credibility index may be calculated for all types of inflation forecasts made by …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011802291

The predictability of monetary policy

Blattner, Tobias; Catenaro, Marco; Ehrmann, Michael; … - 2008

circumstances and contingencies. In this broader sense, longer-term predictability is also closely related to the credibility of the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011641200

The Predictability of Monetary Policy

Blattner, Tobias Sebastian - 2008

circumstances and contingencies. In this broader sense, longer-term predictability is also closely related to the credibility of the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012772989

The predictability of monetary policy

Blattner, Tobias; Catenaro, Marco; Ehrmann, Michael; … - 2008

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013439631

Monetary Policy and Inflation Forecasting with and Without the Output Gap

Razzak, Weshah A. - 2002

real activity, is regarded as the maintained theory of inflation. Models of inflation without the output gap include the … equation of exchange of the quantity theory of money, the real interest rate gap, and two versions of the model. Since none of …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014113863

Forecast uncertainty and the taylor rule

Bauer, Christian; Neuenkirch, Matthias - 2015

In this paper, we derive a modification of a forward-looking Taylor rule, which integrates two variables measuring the uncertainty of inflation and GDP growth forecasts into an otherwise standard New Keynesian model. We show that certainty-equivalence in New Keynesian models is a consequence of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010512077

On the drivers of inflation in different monetary regimes

Garcés Díaz, Daniel G. - 2020

This document proposes a general macroeconomic framework to analyze the behavior of inflation. This approach has two characteristics. The first is the distinction of monetary regimes based on the number of shocks that have a permanent effect on the price level. When all shocks have a permanent...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012391020

Tails of Inflation Forecasts and Tales of Monetary Policy

Andrade, Philippe - 2012

We introduce a new measure called Inflation-at-Risk (I@R) associated with (left and right) tail inflation risk. We estimate I@R using survey-based density forecasts. We show that it contains information not covered by usual inflation risk indicators which focus on inflation uncertainty and do...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013096924

Perceptions about monetary policy

Bauer, Michael D.; Pflueger, Carolin E.; Sunderam, Adi - 2022

We estimate perceptions about the Fed's monetary policy rule from panel data on professional forecasts of interest rates and macroeconomic conditions. The perceived dependence of the federal funds rate on economic conditions is time-varying and cyclical: high during tightening episodes but low...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013473682