An analysis of about 300000 earnings forecasts, created by 18000 individual forecasters for earnings of over 300 S&P listed firms, shows that these forecasts are predictable to a large extent using a statistical model that includes publicly available information. When we focus on the...

This article shows that aggregate analyst recommendations predict future aggregate excess returns at MSA and state level (i.e. local level). The results hold even after controlling for macroeconomic variables, industry and market returns, as well as investor sentiment. We also show that the...

I utilize the recursive partitioning method to extract analysts' weight of forecasts assigned in their stock recommendation decisions. My findings suggest that in addition to analysts' earnings forecasts, the non-earnings forecasts, such as sales forecasts and net income forecasts, also play an...

This paper focuses on the investment value of information contained in the tails of the analyst forecast distribution. I determine the investment value of the tails by looking at dissident analysts -- who release EPS forecasts far from the prevailing consensus. I then test the hypothesis that...

We propose an ex ante measure of analysts' production of private information (PPI) based on the correlations between analysts' forecast revisions and prior stock price changes. We validate this measure by examining whether analysts with lower correlations (higher PPI) provide more information...

We examine the informativeness of analyst forecast revisions that are directionally inconsistent with prior stock price movements (sign-inconsistent revisions). Sign-inconsistent revisions represent approximately one-half of the forecast revisions from 1995 through 2010. Our tests indicate that...

We assess investment value of sell-side analyst recommendations from the standpoint of portfolio risk. We match I/B/E/S consensus recommendations issued for U.S.-listed equities during January 2015 with realized volatility of daily security returns up to one year following recommendation issue....

This study quantifies firm-specific operating exposure to cumulative unexpected weather variations and examines how it affects earnings predictability and analysts’ forecasts. Two competing hypotheses are tested. The reduction in earnings seasonality hypothesis posits that operating weather...

Measuring the information environment of firms using analyst (price) forecast bias and forecast dispersion before listing, we empirically examine the interactive influence of the information environment and market-wide sentiment on the initial returns of initial public offerings (IPOs). We find...

We constructed forecasts of earnings forecasts using data on 406 firms and forecasts made by 5419 individuals with on average 25 forecasts per individual. We verified previously found predictors, which are the average of the most recent available forecast for each forecaster and the difference...