zinc. The economic relationship hinges on the present-value theory for exchange rates, a floating exchange rate regime and …, the Chilean peso is heavily affected by fluctuations in the copper price. As all six base metal prices show an important … commodity currencies to forecast commodity prices …

relies on the present-value model for stock-price determination. This model has the implication of Granger causality from … value of these firms is the price of the commodity they produce and export. Our results are consistent with this theoretical …

. -- Directional forecasts ; directional accuracy ; forecast evaluation ; testing independence ; contingency tables ; bootstrap …

price of spot and future contracts of aluminum. This is shown with both insample and out-of-sample analyses. The theoretical … forecast accuracy: Mean Squared Prediction Error and Mean Directional Accuracy. We also show that the first principal component …

directional forecasts can provide a useful framework to assess the economic forecast value when loss functions (or success … directional forecast value is a readily available alternative to the commonly used squared error loss criterion. -- Directional … forecasts ; directional forecast value ; forecast evaluation ; economic forecast value ; mean squared forecast error ; mean …

, our paper provides indirect but new and strong evidence of the ability that commodity currencies have to forecast …

rates approach forecasting from a different perspective. Rather than focus on forecast errors for bilateral exchange rates …

We use data from the London Metal Exchange (LME) to forecast monthly copper returns using the recently proposed dynamic … statistical evaluation criteria we show that the improvement in mean squared forecast error (MSFE) over a simple random walk (RW …. A visual assessment of the cumulative MSFEs shows further that a substantial part of the improvement in the forecast …