The aim of this paper is to investigate the evidence and implications of time-variation and asymmetry in the persistence of U.S. inflation. We evaluate these features by comparing the out-of-sample forecast performance of two specifications, a Quantile Auto-Regressive (QAR) model and a...

We propose a hybrid penalized averaging for combining parametric and non-parametric quantile forecasts when faced with a large number of predictors. This approach goes beyond the usual practice of combining conditional mean forecasts from parametric time series models with only a few predictors....

The interest in density forecasts (as opposed to solely modeling the conditional mean) arises from the possibility of dynamics in higher moments of a time series as well as, in some applications, the interest in forecasting the probability of future events. By combining the idea of Markov...