This study investigates whether the U.S. Federal Reserve's balance sheet can be used to predict macroeconomic outcomes. The Federal Reserve writes its own accounting standards, and I recast portions of the Federal Reserve's weekly balance sheet as if it more closely followed Generally Accepted...

When generating conditional forecasts in dynamic models it is common to impose the conditions as restrictions on future structural shocks. However, these conditional forecasts often ignore that there may be uncertainty about the future development of the restricted variables. Our paper therefore...

Central bank intervention in the form of quantitative easing (QE) during times of low interest rates is a controversial topic. This paper introduces a novel approach to study the effectiveness of such unconventional measures. Using U.S. data on six key financial and macroeconomic variables...

This paper provides empirical evidence in favor of prompter and more detailed release of Monetary Policy Council's voting records, not published by National Bank of Poland before subsequent MPC meeting. The study shows that voting records, if they were available, could improve predictability of...

The publication of a projected path of future policy decisions by central banks is a controversially debated method to improve monetary policy guidance. This paper suggests a new approach to evaluate the impact of the guidance strategy on the predictability of monetary policy. Using the example...