The HAR model dominates current volatility forecasting. This model implies a restricted lag approach, with three parameters accounting for an AR(22) structure. This paper uses the Lasso method, which selects a parsimonious lag structure, while allowing both a flexible lag structure and lags...

The long-memory and nonlinearity coexist in realised volatility. This paper incorporates the linear AR and HAR models with regime-switching models, including the smooth transition and Markov-switching approaches, to assess the forecasting performance of realized volatility. In-sample results...

We propose an ex ante measure of analysts' production of private information (PPI) based on the correlations between analysts' forecast revisions and prior stock price changes. We validate this measure by examining whether analysts with lower correlations (higher PPI) provide more information...