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Recently it has become clear that many technologies follow a generalized version of Moore's law, i.e. costs tend to drop exponentially, at different rates that depend on the technology. Here we formulate Moore's law as a correlated geometric random walk with drift, and apply it to historical...
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The system of indicators for assessing the impact of the components of technological growth on economic security is generalised. This task is carried out by selecting a system of indicators (40 indicators), which, on the one hand, are consistent with one another and with key indicators used in...
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Decision-makers, experts and laymen in different historical periods and in different socio-economic systems shared at least one desire: to know their future in advance or even to influence it for their advantage. They have used very different approaches and methods from spiritual/religious ones...
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We propose a simple model where the innovation rate of a technological domain depends on the innovation rate of the … predictability of innovation rates can be boosted substantially when network effects are taken into account. In the case where a … technology's neighbourhood further innovation rates are known, the average predictability gain is 28% compared to simpler time …
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