In this paper we investigate the use of forecast averaging for electricity spot prices. While there is an increasing body of literature on the use of forecast combinations, there is only a small number of applications of these techniques in the area of electricity markets. In this comprehensive...

We examine possible accuracy gains from forecast averaging in the context of interval forecasts of electricity spot prices. First, we test whether constructing empirical prediction intervals (PI) from combined electricity spot price forecasts leads to better forecasts than those obtained from...

A variety of methods and ideas have been tried for electricity price forecasting (EPF) over the last 15 years, with varying degrees of success. This review article aims at explaining the complexity of available solutions, their strengths and weaknesses, and the opportunities and treats that the...

A variety of methods and ideas have been tried for electricity price forecasting (EPF), with varying degrees of success. This review article aims at explaining the complexity of available solutions, their strengths and weaknesses, and the opportunities and treats that the forecasting tools offer...

This paper provides detailed information on Team Poland’s approach in the electricity price forecasting track of GEFCom2014. A new hybrid model is proposed, consisting of four major blocks: point forecasting, pre-filtering, quantile regression modeling and post-processing. This universal model...

We examine possible accuracy gains from using factor models, quantile regression and forecast averaging for computing interval forecasts of electricity spot prices. We extend the Quantile Regression Averaging (QRA) approach of Nowotarski and Weron (2014) and use principal component analysis to...

Probabilistic load forecasting is becoming crucial in today's power systems planning and operations. We propose a novel methodology to compute interval forecasts of electricity demand, which applies a Quantile Regression Averaging (QRA) technique to a set of independent expert point forecasts....

We evaluate a recently proposed method for constructing prediction intervals, which utilizes the concept of quantile regression (QR) and a pool of point forecasts of different time series models.We find that in terms of interval forecasting of Nord Pool day-ahead prices the new QR-based approach...